EFFECT OF CLIMATIC CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON GROUNDNUT (ARACHIS HYPOGEA, L.) PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA
Keywords:
climate change, variability, groundnut, production, farmers, NigeriaAbstract
The study examined the effect of climate change and variability on groundnut production in Nigeria. The study specifically analyzed the trend in climatic parameters (temperature, rainfall) in the study area; analyzed the trend in groundnut farmers’ output; and determined the long-run as well as the short-run influences of climatic parameters on the farmers’ output. The population of the study is the entire Nigeria which is over 160 million persons. No sampling procedure was carried out as the work was entirely based on time series data. The study further used the aggregate domestic groundnut production index from FAO which spanned from 1980–2014. Results showed that within this range of the years (1991 and 2000), there was a slight decrease in the mean temperature and rainfall and yet they did not negatively affect the output of groundnut, instead there was an increase. However, from 2001–2010 and 2011–2014, the mean temperature (27.58°C), mean rainfall (1123.58 mm) and groundnut output (58067.36 metric tonnes), and from 2011–2014 which recorded the mean temperature (27.60°C), mean rainfall (1383.15 mm) and the groundnut output (71484.70 metric tonnes) indicated that there is an increase in mean temperature with a corresponding increase in groundnut output, respectively. Results from the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test indicated that the temperature, rainfall and groundnut are non-stationary as they do not show a significant negative coefficient; thus, they are further differentiated to attain stationarity. Pertaining to the result, the variables underwent a first order differentiation after which there was non-stationarity. It was recommended that the Nigerian government should organize programmes under the supervision of the Ministry of Agriculture to train groundnut farmers to keep climate and production activity records in other to provide firsthand information when the need arises. More so, climate research centres should initiate, conduct and coordinate research on the on the status of Nigerian environment with emphasis on climate (Rainfall and Temperature). Hence, adequate communication channels that make research result available to the groundnut farmers should be provided.
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