Forecasting the competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine in the conditions of War and European integration
Keywords:
agrarian sector, competitiveness, European integration, forecasting, fuzzy set theory, modeling, Ukraine, warAbstract
The war in Ukraine, since 24 February 2022, the processes of integration of Ukraine into the European Union in June 2022, the presence of powerful competitors in the European markets encourage the formation of a set of measures with the distinction of tools to ensure the competitiveness of the agrarian sector of the state. The necessity of ensuring the competitiveness of Ukraine’s agrarian sector on the basis of determining the competitive advantages dictate the urgency of scientific search for new methods, forms, tools for its enhancement, which will further promote the market relations in Ukraine and will have a direct impact on the well-being of the population. The aim of the work is to develop an innovative economic-mathematical model for assessing and fore-casting the level of competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine, based on fuzzy sets in the conditions of war and European integration. The object of the research is the process of ensuring the competitiveness of the Ukrainian agrarian sector. The subject of the research is methodological aspects of economic and mathematical modeling of the competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine in the conditions of war and European integration. The methodology of the study is based on the principles and mathematical provisions of fuzzy sets, which allows to use both qualitative and quantitative indicators of influence on the process under study. As a result of the research, based on fuzzy set theory, which allows taking into account both quantitative and qualitative factors of influence on the level of competitiveness, an innovative economic-mathematical model of valuation and forecasting of the level of competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine has been developed. The classification of factors influencing the level of agrarian sector competitiveness has been formed. The forecast (before the war and after the war), until 2026, of the level of competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine has been made, which will allow formulating a strategy of development of the agrarian sector of Ukraine in the conditions of war and European integration.
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