Ефект от въвеждането на еврото върху стойността на земеделската земя: ценова предикция за България

Стефан Асенов

doi:10.61308/AGEA6258

Authors

Stefan Asenov Institute of Agricultural Economics – Sofia, Agricultural Academy – Sofia Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61308/AGEA6258

Keywords:

agricultural land, euro, forecast, investment asset, price, yield

Abstract

The adoption of the single European currency (euro) as the official monetary unit is a key political and economic process, having a complex impact on the macro and microeconomic level, including the agricultural sector, in particular on the value of agricultural land. It is associated with the benefits of economic integration, the stability of the currency area, greater market transparency, strengthening investor confidence, etc. The present study focuses on assessing the effects of the introduction of the euro on the price of agricultural land in the countries that adopted it and a forecast for its future value in Bulgaria, applying an integrated approach. The aim is to seek answer to question about how currency integration can change the dynamics of the value of agricultural land. From a methodological perspective, indicators of economic efficiency have been applied: profit from agricultural land per unit area (EUR/ha) and return on investment (%). To assess the dynamics, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) has been used, which allows for the calculation of the smoothed average annual growth rate for the period. The statistical significance of the results is verified using a coefficient of statistical significance (CS). It is found that in the countries studied that have adopted the euro, the average compound annual growth rate of the price of agricultural land for the reference period is 5.63%, and the average capital return is 51.64%. Accordingly, all other things being equal, the average yield from agricultural land in Bulgaria is expected to be approximately 3.617 EUR/ha by 2032, equivalent to nearly 38.5% return on capital for the reference period.

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