Scenarios for the development of the competitiveness of Bulgarian vegetable production in the world market
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61308/XNMM6965Keywords:
competitiveness, scenarios, vegetable productionAbstract
The present study aims, through the application of stochastic modeling, to develop and design possible scenarios for the development of the competitiveness of the Bulgarian vegetable production sector on the world market by 2030, which would show what changes, prospects and trends would be expected in the development of the vegetable sector in our country, related to the change of key factors.
Applied methods: relative comparative assessment; probabilistic study with covariances; descriptive analysis; indicator method; expert assessment; statistical methods for determining trends (Ivanov et al., 2023, Ivanov, 2024). When developing the forecast scenarios for tracking the possible consequences and effects when assuming options for the development of the sector in our country, a stochastic model with relevant factors and variables was applied. An increase in both production and market risks is expected, associated with reduced yields, increased costs, problems with securing a market and a purchase price that satisfies farmers.
Results for probabilistic scenarios from the modeling: the changes set in the sector development indicators lead to different values of the complex competitiveness index in the three scenarios – optimistic, moderate and pessimistic – for the period 2022 – 2030. The realization of the optimistic scenario would be positive for agriculture as a whole and for the sector, which coincides with recent trends: increased public interest in healthy eating; along with this, a number of EC documents set goals for reducing the use of mineral fertilizers and increasing the areas managed using organic farming methods. The increased public interest and concern for
environmental protection and human health provoked a number of measures in both the EU and domestic policy related to supporting the sector.
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