Risk assessment of an investment project for establishment of an orchard farm
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61308/QNWO7868Keywords:
cost, efficiency, income, pear production, start-upAbstract
The World Health Organization recommends consuming more fruits linked to healthy nutrition. From the consumers’ point of view, it would be good to have a greater variety of local fruits in the Bulgarian markets. These practices will improve the renewal of rural areas in Bulgaria. In both EU–27 and Bulgaria, the areas planted with pears have the lowest relative share from another orchard. At the same time, pears stand out by a high concentration of folic acid, choline, vitamin C, vitamin A, beta-carotene, lutein, zeaxanthin, and vitamin K, making them very useful for human health. Pears, as well as apples, have the most substantial effect on reducing the risk of diabetes. The purpose of the study is to analyse the risks of an investment project for the creation and development of an agricultural farm with a pear plantation in the Kyustendil region for the period 2024 – 2034. The analysis includes calculating revenues and expenses, as well as calculating key financial indicators - internal rate of return, net present value and payback period based on a compiled business plan for the management and development of an agricultural farm, as well as defining different scenarios for project implementation. The results show that the project’s risk level and economic sustainability depend primarily on
production conditions, yield dynamics, and cash flow stability. In a favourable production environment, the risk is low, and profitability is high. In contrast, amid systematic production difficulties and low yields, the project becomes financially vulnerable, underscoring the need for effective risk management.
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