Scenarios and prospects for the population in working age in rural areas of Bulgaria by 2030

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study and assess the viability of rural areas through an analysis of demographic and social characteristics, with particular attention to the size and structure of the working-age population. Based on the results obtained, alternative development scenarios will be developed and the prospects for rural areas in Bulgaria until 2030 will be outlined. The number of working-age population was selected as an indicator for evaluation. In a methodological aspect, an extrapolation method of proportions based on the territorial analysis of partition displacement (TSSA) proposed by Ivanov (2024) is approved. The model is proportional and extrapolation, which means that trends are more reliable than exact figures. According to the results obtained from the developed three scenarios, positive trends are expected for an increase in the absolute % of the population of working age in rural areas at the end of 2030 compared to the results of 2010 and 2020, of course if the trend of the repetition of the environment is maintained and other things being equal. The proposed realistic scenario has the highest probability of happening, which means that favorable changes in demographic and socio-economic aspects should be expected rather. The expected changes will affect the
economically active population more in rural than in non-rural municipalities. At the local level, cross-border cooperation and investment in infrastructure projects should be strengthened.